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A Benefit-Cost Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control in Large Ruminants in Cambodia
Young J.
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Objectives:
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Cambodia and causes significant losses to rural smallholders who own the majority of the nations ~4 million large ruminants. However due to under reporting of cases, paucity of knowledge of disease impacts per animal or household, limited veterinary capacity and minimal disease data available for analysis, the benefits of introducing a large-scale FMD control program remain largely unknown. The aim of this study was to draw on existing information and recent research outputs and conduct a benefit-cost analysis (BCA) of a vaccination-led national FMD control program.
Methods:
Our ‘Best practice health and husbandry of cattle, Cambodia’ (BPHH) research project conducted from 2007 through 2012 and implemented by the University of Sydney (USYD) and Cambodian Department of Animal Health and Production (DAHP), conducted detailed investigations of large ruminant health, production and trade interventions, providing data enabling the development of an analysis framework for a BCA of a vaccinationled national FMD control program. A three-phase framework model was developed to assess the impacts of the FMD epizootic in 2010 and undertake a BCA analysis for control using biannual vaccination, using input data drawn from both published and unpublished studies. The framework involved: Phase 1, estimation of the financial impact per animal and of the true FMD incidence in 2010 using a probability tree applied to the reporting system, plus analysis of trading patterns and farm-gate valuations of animals, matching published longitudinal studies and trader surveys; Phase 2, estimating the national FMD impact and estimating the cost of FMD control using vaccination; and finally Phase 3, conducting a BCA using input parameters from Phases 1 & 2.
Results:
A financial survey impact questionnaire investigating village FMD outbreaks in Cambodia in 2010 indicated that an FMD case caused financial impacts of US$216.32 when the animal survived and treatment was administered. A probability tree estimated the true FMD reporting rate using published and estimated inputs for the reporting system. A total of 61,449 cases of FMD were officially reported to the DAHP in 2010, and using a probability tree of successful reports we estimated the ‘true’ reporting rate of 6.7%, and then when we increased reporting at each step by 10%, and overall ‘true’ reporting rate improved to 14.9%. This equated to an estimated true FMD case number of 917,149, and 413,017 respectively in 2010. A 2010-11 trader survey provided sale prices of cattle and buffalo, and when matched to village herd structure data obtained during the BBHH project, enabled a total farm-gate valuation of cattle and buffalo at US$1.271 billion in 2010, representing a significant asset for rural smallholders. The cost of a vaccination program was estimated at US$6.30 per head per year (from consultation with DAHP staff), equating to US$25.8m for the national herd. The national impact of FMD in 2010 was estimated to range from US$89.3-198.4m, equivalent to a 7.0-15.6% reduction of the farm-gate valuation. The BCA indicated a benefit of 3.5-7.7 was realised from biannual vaccination using recent sale prices of cattle and buffalo in Cambodia, and the two modeled true reporting rates.
Conclusions:
This study applies a simplified model using multiple information sources that each use a number of assumptions potentially impacted by bias. However without attempting to use research outputs to build such models, policy makers have no quantitative evidence-basis to inform decisions on whether to support or reject investments in national disease control programs. Planned application of sensitivity analysis will improve confidence and consider the range of various disease outcomes and underreporting levels. Preliminary results indicate that a national FMD vaccination program would likely achieve a positive impact in Cambodia, contributing to a reduction in the poverty and improved food security
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Affiliation of the authors at the time of publication
University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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