Does Threatening Behaviour by Dogs Predict an Attack??

Threatening behaviour has been under investigation for quite some time and for different reasons. First, as a part of conflicts threatenings are of interest for animal behaviourists because they indicate differences of interest between individuals, and clarifying these conflicts may shed light upon interests ani-

mals have at a certain time in life, and how critical these interests are. Secondly, the process of information transfer which seems to occur during conflicts has lead to formulation of different theories, which were more or less in conflict and which were extended and changed over time. One of the main points here was whether or not threatening behaviour announced a forthcoming physical assault and to what degree this announcement reflected the predominant motivation state (e.g. aggressive) or that it only indicated a certain probability with regard to subsequent behaviours, reflecting motivational conflicts. Another hypothesised function was that threatening behaviour was part of an assessment procedure, which would produce an indication of the likelihood of attack of the opponent.

Regarding the dog, no studies have been published which might give an indication of the value one should adhere to the dog’s threatening behaviour. Studies about predictive value of threatening behaviour in different mammalian, avian and other species show that whereas in some species certain behaviours accurately predict a forthcoming physical attack, in other species attack is not predicted above chance. Threatening behaviour therefore might in some cases communicate a high motivation to attack whereas in other cases a lot of uncertainty is included in the message. Since dogs are a gregarious species, in which the individuals interact frequently and are likely to store and recall results of earlier conflicts, they might be honest in signalling attack tendencies. Therefore, it is expected that threats of dogs have a predictive value with regards to subsequent behaviour. On the other hand, Hinde suggests that individuals might be undecided about what to do next, also is a realistic proposition, which could be reflected in ambivalent behaviour, a result from the simultaneously or alternating precedence of aggressive and fearful motivational tendencies.  [...]